Feb 6, 2023
As it was in 2022, financial markets had their own Kafkaesque backdrop. Investors did not need to stretch their imaginations: reality did it for them. Supposedly rare events appeared more frequently than ever.
All of this has forged an easy fraternity for those predicting more macro doom. Global pessimism is now higher than ever. Understandably, the pull of this narrative is powerful. Because the most recent threats to civilization were a pandemic and then an unforeseen war, we expect the next one to take the same existential form. But should we? Looking ahead, it should be clear that the last few years have marked a definitive end to the age of economic placidity of the 2010s — a metamorphosis of the macroenvironment. In fact, today’s conditions are barely recognizable from the “new normal” features of sluggish growth and low inflation that dominated the last decade.
To be sure, the coming metamorphosis will be uncomfortable at times. Different conditions will take some adjusting. Yet many macro trends are spring-loaded to last for years. New bull markets are quietly beginning. More than ever, investors need to look out further and lean into long-term secular themes. Wide-angle global perspectives will be crucial to discern the path ahead and set the right investment roadmap.